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110 Publications visible to you, out of a total of 110
Non-crossing quantile regression neural network as a calibration tool for ensemble weather forecasts

Abstract

Not specified

Authors: Mengmeng Song, Dazhi Yang, Sebastian Lerch, Xiang’ao Xia, Gokhan Mert Yagli, Jamie M. Bright, Yanbo Shen, Bai Liu, Xingli Liu, Martin János Mayer

Date Published: 1st Mar 2024

Publication Type: Journal

Easy uncertainty quantification (EasyUQ): Generating predictive distributions from single-valued model output

Abstract

Not specified

Authors: Eva-Maria Walz, Alexander Henzi, Johanna Ziegel, Tilmann Gneiting

Date Published: 8th Feb 2024

Publication Type: Journal

Learning to forecast: The Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting Challenge

Abstract

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Authors: Johannes Bracher, Nils Koster, Fabian Krüger, Sebastian Lerch

Date Published: 1st Feb 2024

Publication Type: Journal

Comparative evaluation of point process forecasts

Abstract

Not specified

Authors: Jonas R. Brehmer, Tilmann Gneiting, Marcus Herrmann, Warner Marzocchi, Martin Schlather, Kirstin Strokorb

Date Published: 1st Feb 2024

Publication Type: Journal

Why are different estimates of the effective reproductive number so different? A case study on COVID-19 in Germany

Abstract (Expand)

tive reproductive number Rt has taken a central role in the scientific, political, and public discussion during the COVID-19 pandemic, with numerous real-time estimates of this quantity routinely … published. Disagreement between estimates can be substantial and may lead to confusion among decision-makers and the general public. In this work, we compare different estimates of the national-level effective reproductive number of COVID-19 in Germany in 2020 and 2021. We consider the agreement between estimates from the same method but published at different time points (within-method agreement) as well as retrospective agreement across eight different approaches (between-method agreement). Concerning the former, estimates from some methods are very stable over time and hardly subject to revisions, while others display considerable fluctuations. To evaluate between-method agreement, we reproduce the estimates generated by different groups using a variety of statistical approaches, standardizing analytical choices to assess how they contribute to the observed disagreement. These analytical choices include the data source, data pre-processing, assumed generation time distribution, statistical tuning parameters, and various delay distributions. We find that in practice, these auxiliary choices in the estimation of Rt may affect results at least as strongly as the selection of the statistical approach. They should thus be communicated transparently along with the estimates.

Authors: Elisabeth K. Brockhaus, Daniel Wolffram, Tanja Stadler, Michael Osthege, Tanmay Mitra, Jonas M. Littek, Ekaterina Krymova, Anna J. Klesen, Jana S. Huisman, Stefan Heyder, Laura M. Helleckes, Matthias an der Heiden, Sebastian Funk, Sam Abbott, Johannes Bracher

Date Published: 27th Nov 2023

Publication Type: Journal

Sources of predictability of synoptic‐scale rainfall during the West African summer monsoon

Abstract

Not specified

Authors: Athul Rasheeda Satheesh, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Eva-Maria Walz, Tilmann Gneiting

Date Published: 16th Oct 2023

Publication Type: Journal

Direction augmentation in the evaluation of armed conflict predictions

Abstract

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Authors: Johannes Bracher, Lotta Rüter, Fabian Krüger, Sebastian Lerch, Melanie Schienle

Date Published: 19th Sep 2023

Publication Type: Journal

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